Can Newcastle United Transform Their Aspirations into Achievement in the Carabao Cup Final?

On Sunday, Newcastle are set to clash with Liverpool in the Carabao Cup final, entering the match as the underdogs. However, several crucial factors could play to their advantage, potentially paving the way for an unexpected victory.

The highly anticipated Carabao Cup Final will be held on Sunday, March 16th, at Wembley, pitting Liverpool against Newcastle United. Liverpool are the clear favourites according to bookmakers, and with their current form and statistics, this outlook is quite logical. Yet, Newcastle possess a genuine opportunity to realise their ambitions and bring home their first piece of domestic silverware since 1955.

Liverpool’s strengths

It might seem almost too simple to predict a Liverpool victory in the Carabao Cup. As the reigning champions, they’ve clinched the trophy twice in the last three years and hold the record for the most titles in the competition’s history, boasting ten wins. This is a side that’s experienced in triumph.

Apart from their Cup success, the Reds are currently leading the Premier League and have only faced defeat five times across all competitions this season. Their track record against Newcastle further enhances their reputation; so far this season, they have managed a win and a draw against the Magpies, with the win occurring just a fortnight ago. Liverpool have also gone unbeaten against Newcastle in their last 17 encounters, with their last loss dating back to 2015.

However, Newcastle will not merely be facing any Liverpool side on Sunday; they are up against a well-drilled squad that has excelled in the Premier League under manager Arne Slot. This Liverpool team plays with a more controlled and balanced approach, looking to exploit any weaknesses shown by their opponents. Despite these challenges, there remains hope for Newcastle.

Newcastle’s deputies

Let’s indulge in a moment of optimism. How might Newcastle secure victory in the Carabao Cup? Although they will be without key players such as Anthony Gordon and Lewis Hall, they possess capable substitutes ready to step up. Predictions suggest that Tino Livramento will fill in at left-back, responsible for keeping a close eye on Mohamed Salah. Livramento’s right-footedness could actually work to his advantage, allowing him to confront Salah with his dominant foot as the Egyptian tends to cut in to create scoring opportunities.

Harvey Barnes is likely to take on the role vacated by Gordon. While he hasn’t quite hit his peak form, he has netted five goals in all competitions from a expected goals (xG) tally of 3.93. Barnes has a knack for scoring from unlikely situations, similar to his decisive goal against Wolves earlier this season. If these variables align favourably for Newcastle, they could very well seize the moment.

Newcastle’s key players

Fortunately for Newcastle, they might not have to rely solely on flashes of brilliance, as they boast one of the Premier League’s finest strikers in Alexander Isak. In their December 3-3 draw against Liverpool, Isak was a standout performer, troubling Virgil van Dijk, scoring a goal, and providing an assist. He has found the net in his last two matches against Liverpool and has a tally of 22 goals across all competitions this season.

The presence of a sharp Isak is essential for Newcastle’s chances at cup glory, especially considering their last appearance in a Carabao Cup final in 2022/23, where they fell short against Manchester United, lacking the finishing touch. Despite not being in peak form this time, Newcastle are still finding the net, a trend they aim to continue during this final.

Complementing Isak is the formidable midfield trio of Bruno Guimarães, Sandro Tonali, and Joelinton. With these three back on the pitch against Liverpool, Newcastle can unleash their aggressive and competitive playstyle, utilising their ability to transition quickly and deliver crucial passes. This midfield trio has the quality to test Liverpool, particularly against a side that may be fatigued from their midweek exertions.

A weakened Liverpool

A worn-out team is a vulnerable team. The exertion from Liverpool’s recent 120 minutes of action following their Champions League exit could provide Newcastle with a glimmer of hope. Furthermore, observations from how PSG challenged Liverpool during their two-match tie might be encouraging; the French team exploited weaknesses in Liverpool’s midfield by using their wingers to create overloads, pulling Liverpool players out of position and setting up prime counterattack scenarios—something Newcastle could easily take advantage of.

Add to that Liverpool’s defensive woes, with Trent Alexander-Arnold sidelined following Tuesday’s match and Ibrahima Konaté also potentially unavailable. With Joe Gomez and Conor Bradley already out, it’s conceivable that defensive midfielder Wataru Endo may have to step in as a centre-back, with Jarell Quansah possibly playing right-back. This undermanned backline might give Isak and his teammates a boost of confidence.

Newcastle’s mentality

Entering the match as underdogs could very well play to Eddie Howe’s advantage. He has cultivated a strong ‘us vs them’ mentality among his squad and supporters, which is heightened by their status as clear outsiders in this final. This narrative can energise Newcastle, allowing them to feed off the immense support from their passionate Geordie fans.

We’ve seen this dynamic at play before, particularly in last season’s Champions League campaign and their memorable victory over PSG at St James’s Park. Additionally, the heartache of losing in this very final against Manchester United two seasons ago serves as a powerful motivator for the players, who will certainly want to avoid repeating that painful experience.

Odds for Liverpool vs Newcastle

As mentioned earlier, Liverpool are the favourites among bookmakers, with bet365 listing odds of 13/20 for Liverpool to win in 90 minutes. In contrast, underdogs Newcastle are at 15/4 for a 90-minute victory.

Nevertheless, Newcastle have the chance to turn their dreams into reality, and regardless of the outcome, one can expect them to put up a fierce fight.