Crucial Insights as Arsenal Aim to Extend Lead Over Man City with Victory Against Newcastle

This season has been largely underwhelming for the Magpies, who will need to significantly raise their game to claim victory in North London.

Newcastle’s Struggles at the Emirates

The Magpies have struggled at the Emirates Stadium, suffering defeat in 12 of their last 13 visits and managing to draw just once. They have netted only a single goal in their last nine encounters at this ground.

In addition, Newcastle has been the worst-performing Premier League side since January 25th, with eight losses from their last 11 matches.

Despite their struggles, Newcastle remains only seven points away from Bournemouth, who currently occupy the Conference League qualification spot. A surprising victory could greatly enhance their morale as the 2025/26 season comes to a close.

Arsenal, on the other hand, is looking to bounce back from two consecutive Premier League losses, falling 2-1 to Bournemouth at home and Man City away by the same scoreline.

Gunners Seeking Redemption

The last time Arsenal lost three consecutive top-flight matches was four years ago, coincidentally, they were trailing 1-0 in each of those games as well.

Apart from putting pressure back on Pep Guardiola’s City, there’s an opportunity for Mikel Arteta’s team to achieve a league double over Newcastle for the first time since the 2020/21 season. Additionally, if the Gunners score this weekend, they will surpass the century mark in Premier League goals against Newcastle.

April has not been kind to Arteta, with 18% of his defeats (nine out of 51) occurring during this month.

It’s also a difficult time for the team in terms of accumulated points; they’ve earned the fewest points under Arteta during April, having claimed only 40 from 27 games — an average of 1.48 points per match.

Saka’s Return Boosts the Gunners

To put their recent dip into context, Arsenal has dropped four of their last six matches across all competitions, which is more losses than they had in their prior 53 matches combined (39 wins, 10 draws, and only 3 losses).

The significance of players like Viktor Gyokeres and particularly Bukayo Saka cannot be overlooked.

Though the Swedish forward has not always been consistent in his overall contributions, his scoring ability is undeniable, leading the Arsenal squad with 12 league goals this season.

Saka’s recent injury concerns have kept him sidelined, but Mikel Arteta confirmed his availability, providing a significant boost to the home side.

Without Saka, Arsenal’s win percentage drops to a mere 45% (five wins out of 11), averaging 1.64 points per game.

In contrast, with him in the starting lineup, they have a 73% win ratio (16 wins from 22 matches) and 2.36 points per game, highlighting his importance.

He also leads the team in total shots (63) and shots on target (26).

Guimaraes Crucial for the Magpies

Newcastle will be without Mikel Merino, who scored in the previous encounter this season, and Jurrien Timber is also unlikely to play.

With Fabian Schar, Tino Livramento, Emil Krafth, and Anthony Gordon also unavailable, coupled with Joelinton’s suspension, Eddie Howe will likely rely on Will Osula to lead the attack. Although the striker has scored in five league matches this season, he has unfortunately been on the losing end in three of those matches.

Bruno Guimaraes’ return to form is a welcome one for the Magpies as he tops the club’s scoring charts with nine league goals. He also shares the most assists (four, tied with Lewis Miley) and leads in chances created (39).

Goals Expected

In Newcastle’s recent six Premier League fixtures, they’ve experienced three 2-1 defeats, registered one 2-1 win, and lost another of those matches 1-0.

On the other hand, Arsenal has similarly faced a challenging run, losing two matches 2-1, winning one 2-1, and securing a 1-0 victory in their recent six games. While not an exact parallel, it paints a picture of similarly disappointing form.

Arsenal has only conceded 26 goals over 25 matches this season, officially making them the best defensive side in the league. Conversely, Newcastle’s struggles have been compounded by a poor shot conversion rate of just 15%, ranking 11th in the Premier League.

Arsenal boast the league’s best conversion rate at 19%, and their tally of 63 goals scored only trails Manchester City’s 66.

Historically, there has been only one goalless draw in the last 29 meetings between these two sides, and both teams have consistently been prolific in scoring and conceding during the final 15 minutes of matches this season. Expect plenty of action in front of goal right until the end.