The Numbers Behind Arsenal’s Journey to Southampton as the Gunners Aim to Sustain Their Treble Aspirations

Presently, the Gunners hold a commendable nine-point advantage over Manchester City in the Premier League. However, this lead could dwindle to just three points if Pep Guardiola’s squad triumphs in their game in hand and subsequently defeats Arsenal in a little over two weeks. This development promises to make the final stretch of the season particularly thrilling.

Southampton on an impressive unbeaten streak

Next up for Arsenal is a Champions League fixture against Sporting, with a potential clash against either Barcelona or Atletico Madrid awaiting the winners. But first, they must face Southampton in the FA Cup.

The Saints are enjoying a remarkable run, remaining unbeaten in 14 matches across all competitions. However, they have yet to win any of their last five FA Cup quarter-finals against teams from the top tier, including a defeat to Arsenal back in 1979.

If we look back to the 1962/63 season, that was the last time Southampton successfully advanced to the semi-finals as a side from the second tier. In contrast, Arsenal boasts an impressive FA Cup record, having progressed from 45 of their last 48 ties against teams from lower divisions. Nottingham Forest (twice) and Blackburn are the only sides that have managed to defeat the North London club in this context.

Clearly, Mikel Arteta’s squad will be viewed as favourites to advance once more, and if they succeed, it will bring Arsenal one step closer to securing the only major trophy in Arteta’s managerial history with the club.

Injury worries for Arsenal

The Gunners need to maintain focus, especially since Southampton recently eliminated a Premier League side by defeating Fulham in the previous round.

After their recent defeat in the Carabao Cup final against Manchester City, Arteta will be keen for his team to rebound swiftly, particularly with matches coming thick and fast in the weeks to come.

Compounding matters, the latest international break has not been kind, with Martin Odegaard, Declan Rice, Gabriel, Noni Madueke, Bukayo Saka, Piero Hincapie, Martin Zubimendi, and William Saliba all undergoing late fitness assessments to see if they can feature against the Saints.

Jurrien Timber and Leandro Trossard are expected to return, but Eberechi Eze and Mikel Merino are confirmed absentees.

While Southampton also faces injury concerns, they are primarily missing Leo Scienza, Welington, and Jay Robinson, all of whom will undergo late fitness tests ahead of the match.

Historically, Arsenal holds the upper hand

These two sides clashed last season, with Arsenal victorious in both encounters. They secured a 3-1 victory at the Emirates Stadium, followed by a 2-1 win at St. Mary’s, as Southampton faced relegation after managing only two wins and 12 points to finish at the bottom of the Premier League.

In their last six encounters, Southampton has only managed a single win, which occurred in April 2022. The Gunners have taken three victories, with two matches ending in draws. Notably, Arsenal has only kept Southampton from scoring on one occasion during this span.

If the Saints harbour any hopes of triumph in this fixture, they will need to find a way to contain Gabriel Martinelli, who has proven to be a potent threat for Arsenal in the competition. With four goals, along with the highest number of total shots (10) and shots on target (five), he is certainly Arsenal’s key player.

For Southampton, Kuryu Matsuki leads with five total shots and three on target. The Saints have seen contributions from various players, with each one scoring a FA Cup goal, including Matsuki, Ross Stewart, Cameron Archer, Cameron Bragg, James Bree, and Cyle Larin.

Expect an attacking showcase

Both teams have maintained a conversion rate of 30% in the competition this season. While Arsenal’s overall possession sits at a striking 87%, it’s only a marginal improvement over the 81% of Tonda Eckert’s team.

An open and attacking game is anticipated, with the Gunners often netting the bulk of their goals in the first half hour, while Southampton tends to find their rhythm just before half-time.

Being the home side could work in Southampton’s favour, particularly since all the pressure will be on Arsenal to secure a result.

However, with the dream of a treble very much alive, Arteta has every reason to motivate his team, and it would likely take an off day from the Gunners for the hosts to stand a chance of pulling off a shocking upset.