AFL’s Harsh New Measures to Hit Carlton, Port Adelaide and Essendon Hard after Four Years of Queensland Teams Reaping Rewards

The AFL is set to revise its father-son and academy draft bidding regulations, complicating the process for clubs attempting to match bids for prospective players.

This change comes as a significant blow to three struggling clubs as we approach 2026: Carlton, Essendon, and Port Adelaide, all of which have promising talent on the horizon in the upcoming drafts.

The timing of this alteration follows a remarkable four-year period during which Queensland clubs, Gold Coast and Brisbane, managed to amass top-tier talent at a fraction of the standard value.

Cal Twomey, an AFL draft specialist, disclosed on Nine’s Footy Classified that clubs will no longer receive the 10 per cent discount on draft points when matching bids for father-son and academy players.

Furthermore, clubs will now be required to match these bids using only two picks. For instance, Brisbane notably secured Will Ashcroft during the 2022 draft with mid-range selections, despite Ashcroft’s bid being made at pick two. He has since clinched consecutive Norm Smith Medals.

Additionally, teams finishing in the top two will face a 25 per cent points loading, with third and fourth place clubs hit with a 20 per cent loading.

Despite pushback against the talent acquisitions by the Suns and Lions, it is hard to overlook the fact that the AFL has essentially allowed these clubs, operating in its favoured emerging market, a four-year period to benefit before imposing new restrictions on other teams.

Amidst this uncertainty, Carlton, Essendon, and Port Adelaide are projected to struggle through 2026 and beyond, particularly with the integration of Tasmania into the league.

The top two prospects in the upcoming draft are currently affiliated with the Blues and Power: Cody Walker, son of Carlton legend Andrew Walker, and Dougie Cochrane, from Port Adelaide’s academy, are projected to go first and second overall. Meanwhile, Essendon has Koby Bewick, who is anticipated to be a leading pick in the 2027 draft.

Interestingly, this year’s crop of Queensland academy prospects seems relatively weaker.

“There are a few major clubs that will be affected by these developments,” Twomey remarked on Footy Classified on Tuesday night.

“The changes come at an unfortunate time for Essendon, Carlton, and Port Adelaide… these clubs will be the most adversely affected by these new rules.”

“Carlton is set to invest heavily in securing Cody Walker. They may ultimately pay a record price for a father-son selection this year. As for Dougie Cochrane at Port Adelaide, these changes will also influence the next generation of academies, while next year, Essendon hasn’t had a standout father-son prospect for quite some time, yet they’re facing the possibility of a hefty fee for Koby Bewick.”

“There’s no doubt these forthcoming changes will significantly impact these three clubs, none of whom have enjoyed much success lately.”

The Suns have accumulated nine first-round selections through their academy in the past three drafts, whilst the Lions have snagged three top-tier father-son selections (Will and Levi Ashcroft and Jasper Fletcher) and turned academy talents like Sam Marshall and Ty Gallop into premiership contributors.

Former Essendon coach James Hird raised the question with Twomey of whether these clubs have legitimate grounds to feel “hard done by,” or if it’s mere bad fortune.

“It’s a bit of both,” Twomey responded.

“They absolutely have reason to feel let down. They’ve been vocal about their concerns for months, but it seems unlikely to change anything. These modifications are coming for this year and beyond, and they will have to face the consequences.”

Former Collingwood president Eddie McGuire believes the AFL should have postponed these changes, allowing clubs like Carlton, Port Adelaide, and Essendon some breathing space, perhaps delaying until after Tasmania officially enters the competition in 2028.

“Could the AFL justify implementing these changes now, considering that Essendon hasn’t celebrated a finals win in 20 years? Perhaps a short delay would be in the competition’s best interest,” McGuire suggested.

Twomey, however, indicated that the AFL is determined to make it challenging to acquire these players as quickly as possible, following concerns that Gold Coast and Brisbane had taken advantage of the previous rules in recent seasons.

A cynical perspective might argue that if they were genuinely troubled by the success of the Suns and Lions, the rules might have been adjusted earlier than 2026.

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After Gold Coast’s massive acquisition of four first-round picks through their academy in 2023, the perspective for implementing these changes seems all the more justified.

However, the AFL remains firmly committed to fostering growth in Queensland and has essentially given Gold Coast a prolonged opportunity to benefit before revising the rules.

As it stands in 2026, Gold Coast appears to be a serious contender due to their influx of youthful talent, alongside freeing up salary cap space to target Melbourne star Christian Petracca.

In contrast, Brisbane has secured consecutive premierships and has been a strong contender every season since 2019, adding the Ashcroft siblings and top academy prospect Daniel Annable, who is seen as an elite midfielder, in their drafting strategy.

Conversely, Essendon hasn’t celebrated a victory since May 2025 and is yet to win a final since 2004.

Carlton has oscillated between mediocrity and poor performance throughout much of the 21st century, with only fleeting moments of success.

Further complicating matters for Port Adelaide is the potential departure of Zak Butters, who may be the best player the club has ever seen since its inception in the AFL, as he considers free agency while the club embarks on a rebuilding phase.

Carlton’s chief, Graham Wright, voiced his dissatisfaction with the AFL’s impending draft modifications, especially since they are being implemented mid-season and leave clubs with little opportunity to adjust their strategies.

“We feel strongly about the need for a transition period. It would have been beneficial for clubs like ours to know when these changes would take effect, whether it be in ’27, ’28, or ’29, so we could prepare accordingly,” Wright noted.

“We have lacked the advantages that others have enjoyed.”

Wright also indicated that the Blues might need to enter a draft points deficit to acquire Walker this year.

“Depending on the circumstances, that may be necessary,” he acknowledged.

This scenario could potentially push their later draft picks back as they ‘pay’ for whatever bid they can’t completely match with the aforementioned two picks, potentially jeopardising their plans for 2027.

Presently, Carlton has secured all their first-round selections, as well as Sydney’s picks in 2026 and 2027 from the Charlie Curnow trade.