Carlton and Michael Voss are approaching a pivotal moment, and it has nothing to do with Elijah Hollands.

The uproar surrounding the Elijah Hollands debacle at Carlton this week has undoubtedly captured attention, yet beneath the surface lies the undeniable fact that the club finds itself at a pivotal juncture.

At the heart of this situation is an impending choice that the Blues will need to confront regarding the fate of coach Michael Voss.

The recent mental health episode involving Hollands, alongside the club’s response and ongoing worries regarding his welfare, have rightly been in the spotlight this week.

However, putting those pressing concerns aside, Carlton squandered another lead on Thursday night against Collingwood, allowing an unfortunate collapse over 15 minutes that resulted in yet another loss.

The Blues were in a commanding position at both half-time and three-quarter time, yet a seven-goal outburst from the Magpies turned the fate of the match in the final quarter.

Carlton supporters once again witnessed Nick Daicos and Jamie Elliott dismantling their defence when the stakes were highest.

Since Michael Voss took charge, the club has managed to triumph over their arch-rivals just once, with a disheartening five consecutive losses to the Pies now recorded.

These aren’t merely standard defeats. In 2022, Collingwood staged a comeback to defeat Carlton in the last round, ousting them from the top eight on the final day of the season. This year, Mitch McGovern’s missed shot after the siren could have clinched victory for the Blues, a haunting echo of Byrne’s miss just last Thursday.

The defeat to Collingwood highlighted Carlton’s significant shortcomings this season. They frequently allow opponents to score in rapid succession, with a noticeable inability to halt the momentum, and they also stumble when it comes to scoring after half-time.

The Blues rank as one of the top-performing teams during the first quarter, sitting third overall. They’ve secured five wins out of six matches, boasting a points differential of +74. However, their performance tailspins from there.

Carlton’s numbers tell a worrying story: in the second quarter, they’re at 3-3 with a points differential of -10. The third quarter sees them at 2-4 and -68, whilst the final quarter has been particularly troubling, with a 1-5 record and a staggering -121.

This trend has persisted over the last two years, dating back to the club’s dramatic decline in the latter stages of the 2024 season.

Former captain Sam Docherty’s now-notorious leaked critique of the club still resonates, as it aptly captures these ongoing issues.

Ultimately, this all circles back to Voss and his ability to rectify these problems. So far, he has fallen short.

With no other AFL coach out of contract at the conclusion of this season, the focus on Voss is perhaps unavoidable. Carlton soon must decide whether to extend his contract as they approach 2026.

He has overseen five years of what can only be described as an erratic journey.

The stark reality is that the Blues have not appeared to be a top-eight contender since the mid-point of the 2024 season. What was intended to be the culmination of a decade-long rebuild has fizzled out without significant progress.

This season alone has seen them squander leads against Sydney, Melbourne, North Melbourne, and Collingwood. They’ve only avoided disaster against Richmond due to the latter’s inability to convert chances.

In that round one clash, Tom Lynch’s 2.7 scoring record meant the Blues avoided being winless and sitting rock bottom on the ladder.

Carlton’s upcoming fixtures look daunting, as they prepare to face Fremantle (away), St Kilda, Brisbane (away), Western Bulldogs, Port Adelaide (away), Geelong, and Essendon before their next bye.

Currently, they’ll likely enter these matches as underdogs, save perhaps for the clash with the Bombers in round 13.

Failing to secure a couple of surprising wins in that stretch could spell the end of their season and lead them towards a finish in the bottom four.

This ultimately brings us to a predictable conclusion for both the club and Voss: the necessity for a fresh start.

On Anzac Day, they head to Perth for what will be one of the most challenging matches on the calendar against the Dockers.

Carlton will be missing Harry McKay, Marc Pittonet, and Hollands in this match, so their squad depth will be severely tested against a genuine top-four contender.