The second legs of the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals take place on Wednesday and Thursday mornings. Football betting expert Frank Monkhouse shares his top betting tips for each clash.
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We’re down to the final eight teams in this year’s UEFA Champions League, with that number poised to dwindle to four after this week’s quarter-final second legs. With all four ties finely balanced, football fans, casual viewers, and punters alike can look forward to an exhilarating two days. Which club will edge nearer to the final?
Arsenal managed a narrow 1-0 win over Sporting in Lisbon last Wednesday morning. Mikel Arteta’s squad is now focused on wrapping up the tie in the second leg at the Emirates Stadium. Meanwhile, Bayern Munich triumphed with a 2-1 victory against Real Madrid in Spain and will enjoy home advantage for the return encounter. The visitors, Los Blancos, arrive at the Allianz Arena in need of a win. Will they rise to the occasion?
Read on as Champions League betting analyst Frank Monkhouse provides his thoughts and predictions.
Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona, Wednesday, 5:00am AEST
Atletico Madrid enjoy the home advantage in this all-Spanish affair. At least one LaLiga side will progress to the semi-finals, but will it be Atletico or Barcelona? The locals take a 2-0 aggregate lead into the second leg after a stunning win at Camp Nou just days ago. Can Atletico see it through to the end?
This match will mark the sixth meeting of the season between these two rivals, presenting ample data for stat enthusiasts. Out of the five previous encounters, Atletico hosted twice, securing an impressive 4-0 victory earlier this year in the Copa del Rey. Barcelona got their own back, winning 2-1 at this very venue in LaLiga earlier this month.
With a two-goal deficit to overcome, Barcelona must come out firing. An early goal would significantly alter the dynamic of the match. Thus, I’m inclined to back the totals market, opting for over 2.5 goals. This bet has been successful in both of their last two meetings in Madrid and in five out of the six encounters played this season.
The opening goal will be pivotal on Wednesday. If Atletico take the lead, they will be in a comfortable position. Conversely, a Barcelona goal to make it 1-0 will heighten the pressure on the home side. With both teams aware of the importance of an early strike, I anticipate a fast-paced start. With so much at stake from six previous matchups this season, expect no early settling-in.
Tip: Over 2.5 goals @ 1.40 (bet365)
Bet explanation: You’ll make a profit if Atletico Madrid and Barcelona score a combined three or more goals on Wednesday.
Liverpool vs PSG, Wednesday, 5:00am AEST
Heading to England, we have another intriguing fixture. PSG make the journey from Paris to Anfield to face Liverpool. The visitors, who are the reigning champions, breezed past Inter Milan in last year’s final. They also hold a lead on aggregate after a 2-0 victory over the Reds in the first leg.
Liverpool knew that their best shot at eliminating the defending champions was to avoid a heavy defeat in the first leg. Boss Arne Slot and his squad understand the electric atmosphere of a full Anfield. Although they didn’t achieve their desired outcome, being 2-0 down means the tie is still within reach if they can score first.
Anfield’s European nights are renowned for their special atmosphere. However, Liverpool face a daunting task in coming from behind to beat PSG, who were dominant in the first leg. The statistics show that the Ligue 1 champions controlled 74% of possession and had 18 shots on goal compared to just three from Liverpool. The shot count on target was 6-0 in favour of PSG.
PSG arrive in outstanding form and are well-equipped to progress. Will they aim to add to their two-goal lead or will they focus on defending their advantage? We’ll find out on Wednesday night, but I believe the champions hold the edge over Liverpool. Consider adding PSG to your midweek accumulators.
Bet explanation: If PSG triumph over Liverpool again, you’ll beat the bookies and see an increase in your balance.
Arsenal vs Sporting, Thursday, 5:00am AEST
On Thursday, another pair of crucial fixtures awaits, including a match in London featuring the tournament favourites. Arsenal will host Sporting in the UK capital, looking to build on their impressive Champions League form. The Gunners were put to the test in Lisbon last Wednesday but managed to secure a slim 1-0 advantage. There’s still everything to play for.
Sporting, seasoned in the Champions League, will know that pulling off a win away from home is a tall order. A victory at a venue as formidable as the Emirates Stadium would mean the Lions are on the brink of elimination from the tournament, with betting odds for an away win standing at an enticing 6/1. Will Sporting defy the odds? I doubt it.
The previous clash was tightly contested, remaining at 0-0 after 90 minutes before Arsenal struck late, with Havertz finding the net less than a minute into stoppage time. This was a crushing blow for Sporting, who believed they deserved at least a draw. I recommend placing a bet on Arsenal to secure their progression.
Historical performances by Arsenal at this venue include victories of 2-0 against Bayer Leverkusen, 3-2 against Kairat, 3-1 against Bayern Munich, 4-0 against Atletico Madrid, and 2-0 against Olympiakos. I suggest backing Arsenal -1 on the handicap at a reasonable price, which means the home team must win by at least two goals to cover the bet.
Tip: Arsenal -1 handicap @ 2.10 (bet365)
Bet explanation: Arsenal must defeat Sporting by at least two goals. A repeat of their 1-0 win won’t suffice to cover the handicap.
Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid, Thursday, 5:00am AEST
We conclude the quarter-finals in Germany with an exciting clash. Bayern Munich will play at home, calling for all the support they can muster at the Allianz Arena. Munich finished as runners-up in the opening phase of the Champions League, with their only defeat to Arsenal. In the knockout rounds, they have already hammered Atalanta 10-2 in the Last 16 and claimed a win against Madrid in the first leg.
Real Madrid holds the title of the most successful club in Champions League history, having clinched the trophy no less than 15 times from 1956 to 2024. Throughout the years, they have pulled off numerous upsets and comebacks, making them a constant threat. Can Alvaro Arbeloa’s team mount a win to stay in the competition?
Bayern managed to secure a 2-1 win in Madrid in the first leg, which is no small feat. The Germans struck with two rapid-fire goals, with Diaz finding the net just before half-time, followed by Kane doubling their lead shortly after the break. Mbappe responded with a goal that kept Madrid in the hunt. Expect more drama to unfold.
Finding the net at the Allianz Arena won’t be easy. Turning the aggregate score around and defeating Bayern Munich is a massive challenge. I’m backing both teams to score while betting on a home victory. Statistics from the first leg indicate that both teams had 20 attempts at goal, but they were inefficient, with less than half of those on target. With the pressure mounting, the attackers know they must convert their chances.
Tip: Bayern win and BTTS @ 2.50 (bet365)
Bet explanation: You need Bayern Munich to defeat Real Madrid, while Madrid must score at least once to land this bet.
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The odds, correct at the time of publication, are subject to change.
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